The demand for lithium-ion batteries is soaring as electric vehicles and green technologies take center stage. However, the supply chain for lithium, a crucial component of these batteries, is facing challenges in terms of stability, security, and neutrality. China currently dominates the global lithium chemical production market, controlling 80% of it despite having only 7% of lithium reserves. This monopoly is concerning, especially given China’s control over 70% of cell manufacturing for the EV industry.
The Hard-Rock Situation
- Hard-rock lithium sources account for 60% of the mined global supply, projected to remain dominant until 2030.
- China holds a significant share of hard-rock lithium processing, with Chile trailing behind.
- China’s investments in the Lithium Triangle and other regions give it a strong grip on the raw resource market.
- Off-take contracts solidify China’s control over the market, potentially leading to price manipulation and market dominance.
China Consequences
China’s monopoly over hard-rock lithium processing raises concerns about market control, pricing, and international policy influence. Other players in the market face challenges in negotiating fair terms in this lopsided landscape, making it tough for newcomers to enter the arena.
International Efforts
- The US released the National Blueprint for Lithium Batteries to ensure a stable supply chain by 2030.
- Canada and the EU have introduced tax incentives to boost domestic lithium production and processing.
- Collaborations between nations aim to foster responsible lithium supply chains through cooperation and mutual benefits.
Projects with Promise
- Companies like Full Circle Lithium, Lithium Americas, and Lithium Universe are investing in lithium conversion facilities in North America and Europe.
- Projects in Nevada, Quebec, and Ontario show potential to ramp up lithium production.
- Australia’s operations in Kemerton are expanding to include lithium hydroxide production.
Investor Takeaway
Investing in lithium conversion facilities presents a lucrative opportunity as nations strive to secure their supply chains. With the green economy’s reliance on lithium-ion batteries, the industry is primed for growth and transformation. As the market evolves outside of China, diverse investments in lithium are becoming increasingly attractive. The future of the lithium market holds promising opportunities for investors and stakeholders.