Central banks around the world have been utilizing unconventional balance sheet policies like quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) to address macroeconomic and financial stability concerns. While these policies have shown some success, the implications of these actions can be complex and intertwined with other policy measures. In a recent study conducted by Michael Kumhof and Mauricio Salgado-Moreno, a novel theoretical framework focusing on the central bank’s liabilities sheds light on the implications of QE and QT policies.
Key Points from the Study:
- Focus on the liability side: While existing studies often concentrate on the asset side of the central bank balance sheet, this research delves into the effects of reserve issuance and distribution across banks on financial stability in response to shocks.
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Detailed financial system modeling: The study utilizes a medium-scale New-Keynesian DSGE model, incorporating a real sector and a detailed financial sector calibrated to the US economy post-GFC and pre-Covid.
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Interbank market dynamics: The model highlights the importance of interbank markets that link banks with varying levels of liquidity, showcasing the impact of liquidity distribution on the financial system.
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Implications of QE/QT policies: The study assesses the steady state effects and dynamic responses of QE/QT policies, exploring the comparative static effects of reserve quantity and government debt on macroeconomic variables.
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Effects on banking sector: The research reveals the asymmetric effects of large-scale net deposit withdrawal shocks on different types of banks, emphasizing the impact on lending rates and GDP.
In conclusion, the study emphasizes the significance of the distribution of reserves across the banking system in determining the effects of QE/QT policies. It also suggests that countercyclical reserve injections during interbank market stress can have positive outcomes. As central banks continue to explore the use of unconventional balance sheet tools, further research is needed to understand the interactions between these policies and conventional monetary tools. The insights provided by this study offer a valuable starting point for analyzing these complexities and their implications for financial and real stability.
