Allan Lichtman, the American University history professor renowned for his accurate presidential election forecasts, stands out in a field dominated by pollsters and data crunchers. In a world of statistical models and probabilistic predictions, Lichtman takes a different approach, relying on a set of 13 “keys” to forecast the outcome of presidential elections. Contrary to popular belief, he dismisses the influence of campaigns, candidate quality, and debates on election results. Instead, Lichtman asserts that American voters base their decision on the incumbent party’s track record.
The uniqueness of Lichtman’s forecasting method lies in the 13 keys, each a true-or-false statement that determines the outcome of an election. These keys, established with the help of a Russian mathematical geophysicist in 1981, have successfully predicted the winner in almost every election since 1984. Here are the 13 keys, as detailed in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President”:
- Incumbent-party mandate
- Nomination contest
- Incumbency
- Third party
- Short-term economy
- Long-term economy
- Policy change
- Social unrest
- Scandal
- Foreign or military failure
- Foreign or military success
- Incumbent charisma
- Challenger charisma
Despite sounding subjective, Lichtman argues that assessing these keys requires the kind of historical judgment that he, as an academic, is trained to make. This method has been the backbone of his accurate predictions, even when they defy conventional wisdom.
An element of his methodology that sets him apart is his focus on the national popular vote winner, rather than the state-by-state results. Although some critics argue against his predictions, Lichtman’s track record of nearly perfect forecasts cannot be ignored. His unwavering commitment to historical analysis and the keys system has set him apart in the world of election forecasting.
As the 2020 presidential election approaches, Lichtman once again predicts the victor with confidence. He maintains that his approach provides a reliable insight into the electorate’s decision-making process, emphasizing the importance of historical context over campaign rhetoric and candidate debates.
Will Lichtman’s bold predictions continue to hold true in the face of an ever-changing political landscape? As the nation waits to see how pragmatic the electorate truly is, Lichtman’s steadfast faith in his forecasting method remains unshaken.
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