In a recent study published by Professors EJ Antony and Peter St Onge, titled “Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years,” the reality of America’s economic situation under Bidenomics is brought to light. This study, conducted through the Brownstone Institute, challenges the notion that the US economy is thriving and paints a grim picture of the true state of affairs.
Key Findings from the Study:
- The study reveals that the reported inflation rates have significantly understated the actual cumulative inflation since 2019, leading to a distorted view of the economic landscape.
- Adjustments made by Antony and St Onge suggest that there has been a massive overstatement of cumulative GDP growth by approximately 15% due to the disparity between reported CPI and adjusted inflation.
- Contrary to popular belief, the adjustments indicate that the American economy has been in a recession since 2022, contradicting the narrative of a booming economy.
Challenging the Study’s Findings:
- Upon closer examination, I attempted to replicate the price level calculations proposed by Antony and St Onge using house prices and mortgage rates. However, the closest match I achieved was depicted by the green line in the graph, indicating discrepancies in their assessment.
- Analyzing the GDP calculation in relation to productivity, it becomes evident that the estimates provided by Antony and St Onge paint a bleak picture of the economic output per worker compared to official data.
Critical Analysis and Outlook:
- Dr. Antony’s emphasis on the preliminary benchmark revealing a reduction in the number of employed individuals raises concerns about the true productivity levels in the economy. Even with the anticipated final revision by Goldman Sachs, the output per worker remains alarmingly low according to the study’s calculations.
In conclusion, the study by Antony and St Onge serves as a wake-up call to reassess the prevailing narrative of economic prosperity in the United States. The discrepancies highlighted in their research challenge the optimistic claims of a flourishing economy under Bidenomics, urging a more realistic evaluation of the true economic conditions. It is imperative to delve deeper into the data and question conventional wisdom to gain a clearer understanding of the economic reality facing the nation.
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