Completely rewrite the following article in a fresh and original style. Ensure the new content conveys the same sentiment and message as the original. The rewritten article should:
- Start with a compelling introduction that hooks the reader (do not label this section).
- Maintain any lists and points as they are, using numbering and bullet points where necessary. Rewrite the explanations and discussions around these points to make them fresh and original. Ensure the lists are formatted correctly with proper numbering or bullet points.
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Organize the content into clear, logical sections. Subheadings are not mandatory. Each section should have a subheading only if it enhances readability and comprehension.
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End with a strong conclusion that summarizes the key points and provides a closing thought or call to action (do not label this section).
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Ensure it is formatted properly with adequate line spacing
Make sure the article flows coherently, is engaging, and keeps the reader interested until the end. Reorganize and structure the content efficiently to enhance readability and comprehension. Use varied sentence structures and vocabulary to avoid monotony. Avoid directly copying any sentences or phrases from the original content. Here is the original content:
Peter Schiff today:
This morning has seen a trifecta of weak economic data. Aug. PMI & ISM manufacturing both came out even weaker than expected, while July construction spending unexpectedly fell. It’s becoming clear the #economy is entering a #recession just as #inflation is poised to turn higher.
Bloomberg indicates manufacturing PMI was 47.9 vs consensus 48, ISM manufacturing was 47.2 vs. 47.5 consensus. Over the last year, the standard deviation of forecast errors is 0.5, so the -0.3 surprise is not statistically significantly different from average surprise of 0.17. Construction spending was down 0.3% m/m vs +0.1% consensus. The standard deviation of errors is 0.4 ppts, so once again the drop is within one standard deviation and not statistically significantly different from zero.
As for construction spending:
Goldman Sachs comments:
. Nominal construction spending decreased by 0.3% (mom sa) in July, against expectations for a 0.1% increase. Spending growth was revised up in June (+0.3pp to flat) and May (+0.6pp to +0.2%). Private construction spending declined by 0.4% in July, as private residential spending (-0.4%) and private nonresidential spending (-0.4%) both decreased. Public construction spending edged up in July (+0.1%), reflecting an increase in public nonresidential spending (+0.2%) but a decrease in public residential spending (-2.6%). Construction costs increased by 0.6% in July (mom sa, Census measure), indicating that construction spending decreased 0.9% in real terms.
Maybe recession is coming. Not sure these releases a persuasive. Note: Mr. Schiff has been predicting recession since November 2023.
This entry was posted on September 3, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.
