In the wake of Israel’s relentless offensive against Hizbollah in Lebanon, the once vibrant landscapes of olive groves and orange orchards now lie abandoned, while merchandise remains stranded in factories severed by bombings. The bustling bars and boutiques of Lebanon, once filled with city dwellers, now stand desolate as the shadow of war darkens the country.
The devastating impact of the conflict has not only halted the modest recovery Lebanese businesses were starting to enjoy after years of economic turmoil but threatens to plunge the nation into an even deeper crisis. The chief economist at Bank Audi, Marwan Barakat, fears a further decline of up to 20 per cent in growth forecasts for the next year, should the conflict persist.
The scars of Lebanon’s past economic woes run deep, with a collapse of 98 per cent in the local currency’s value since 2019 and a severe banking crisis leaving citizens cut off from their savings. Persistent political deadlock and a lack of public debt restructuring have only exacerbated these issues, as the nation struggles to recover from past traumas, including the devastating Beirut port blast and the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The economic fallout has hit every sector hard; from agriculture to manufacturing and even the lively diaspora spending. The once thriving southern region, known for its lush olive groves and fruitful plantations, now stands barren, its population displaced by the looming threat of war. The loss to Lebanon’s agricultural sector is estimated at a staggering $1.1bn, a blow that will reverberate for years to come.
As the conflict drags on, hope for a ceasefire looms on the horizon. Business owners cling to the possibility of a return to normalcy, with dreams of holiday spending reinvigorating the market and sparking a resurgence in consumer confidence. Despite the gloom that hangs over the country, there are pockets of resilience, with areas unaffected by conflict seeing a glimmer of economic activity and a return to normalcy.
Amidst the chaos, stories of resilience emerge, with Lebanese adapting to their new reality. As bars and restaurants slowly fill up again, business owners like Mahmoud Habib and Anthony Massoud find solace in the simple pleasures of life, offering “war products” that speak to the resilience of a nation once known for its prosperity.
The road to recovery for Lebanon may be long and arduous, but the spirit of its people remains unbroken. As the dust settles and the scars of war slowly begin to heal, there is hope that Lebanon will rise from the ashes, stronger and more united than ever before. It is in these moments of darkness that the light of resilience shines brightest, illuminating a path to a brighter future for all who call Lebanon home.
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