Completely rewrite the following article in a fresh and original style. Ensure the new content conveys the same sentiment and message as the original. The rewritten article should:
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Belarus has opened early voting for a presidential election set to cement Alexander Lukashenko’s grip on power and his dependence on Moscow, three years after the country served as a launch pad for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.The 70-year-old former Soviet farm director, whose re-election in 2020 triggered large protests and the harshest crackdown in the country’s history, has barred any opposition candidates from running and outlawed any form of dissent. “No political process, no opposition candidates, nothing close to the competition we witnessed in 2020,” said Artyom Shraibman, a scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “The main thing is that in Belarus votes simply aren’t counted.”Both the European parliament and the US State Department said the election, which opened on Tuesday and ends on Sunday, was a “sham,” stating they cannot be free under the country’s “current repressive environment”.Lukashenko’s regime is propped by Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose war in Ukraine has brought the two leaders even closer. Last week, Putin called Lukashenko and wished him “success” in the elections, according to the Kremlin.“Their meetings have shifted from discussions between two presidents to something resembling routine staff briefings,” said Belarusian political scientist Vadim Mojeiko. Since 2020, Lukashenko has visited Russia more than 20 times, while Putin has travelled to Belarus three times.The western sanctions imposed on both countries in response to the war in Ukraine have only deepened their mutual reliance on each other.Last week, Vladimir Putin, left, called Alexander Lukashenko, right, to wish him ‘success’ in the elections © Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/Reuters“Russia and Belarus shared interests now clearly outweigh past disagreements,” said Carnegie’s Shraibman. Before 2022, Lukashenko’s aim was to keep a financial lifeline from Moscow while resisting deeper formal integration with the former Soviet ruler and keeping an open channel to European capitals. But Putin’s war has rendered that strategy meaningless. Not only was Belarus used as a staging ground for Russian military strikes on Ukraine, but Lukashenko also had to allow the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on his territory. The Belarusian leader also served as a mediator between warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Kremlin during a brief mutiny against the Russian top brass. Lukashenko hosted the Wagner group leader and his fighters in Belarus before Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash in 2023. Despite western sanctions, Belarus had managed to capitalise on the war and its ties to Russia, although the long-term risks were mounting, said Lev Lvovskiy, academic director at the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center.The Belarusian economy grew 4 per cent last year, after it contracted 4.7 per cent in 2022. Lvovskiy credits the recovery to growing military and consumer demand from Russia, discounted oil and gas, and cheap Russian loans that enable generous domestic lending.Another driver is growing domestic demand because of net salary growth that has risen almost a quarter since 2024 amid a tightening labour market. The growth, which Lvovskiy describes as a sign of overheating, comes as trade with Russia has reached 60 per cent, from 40 per cent before the war.“The government knows this is problematic, but there are no alternatives,” he said.Analysts see few chances of mass protests following this year’s elections, given the harsh penalties for any form of dissent. Lukashenko has warned officials of possible “provocations” on Sunday. Polling stations abroad will not be open, with some 3.5mn of Belarusians disenfranchised of their right to vote. The election was also brought forward by six months to avoid holding it in the summer when the warmer temperatures could encourage potential demonstrators.In 2020, thousands of people protesting against Lukashenko’s rigged election were imprisoned or forced into psychiatric wards. Within just a year, the situation deteriorated drastically. While demonstrators had carried Belarusian flags and anti-Lukashenko banners, the subsequent waves of arrests and raids, and pressure on family members meant that even placing a blank sheet of paper in a window could result in detention. Hundreds of thousands fled abroad as a consequence.More than 7,700 people have faced politically motivated criminal charges for protesting, posting comments online and working with civil society organisations and independent media. Seven political prisoners have died in custody. Nearly 1,300 remain behind bars, according to the human rights centre Viasna.Recommended“State control continues to intensify, creating an atmosphere of fear,” said Sviatlana Halauneva, a lawyer at Viasna.In 2024 alone, more than 1,700 people were convicted, some for minor acts such as sending food to prisoners. Lukashenko had pardoned a few hundred since last summer, likely in “an attempt to send a signal to Lukashenko’s loyal domestic audience”, said Halauneva. Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who in 2020 ran in place of her imprisoned husband, Sergey, has been living abroad with her children ever since the crackdown. While Lukashenko claimed to have secured 80 per cent of the vote, the opposition calculated that she had actually won by more than 50 per cent.Now based in Vilnius, she and her team lobby for Belarusian interests abroad, including harsher western sanctions against the Lukashenko regime. She has called on supporters going to polling stations on Sunday to “express their protest by voting against all those who steal our right to vote”.
