The holiday season has arrived, bringing with it a unique blend of festive cheer and housing market resilience in the face of rising mortgage rates. Contrary to the usual slowdown expected with higher rates, there seems to be a seasonal spark igniting housing demand, as evident from the recent data on pending contracts reflecting robust year-over-year growth. Let’s dive into this week’s Tracker data to uncover the possible trajectory for the remainder of the year.
Weekly pending sales:
– The weekly pending contract data unveils real-time insights into housing demand, showcasing a customary seasonal volume decline. Despite the uptick in mortgage rates, the pending contract data remains steadfast in its positive year-over-year growth, signaling a promising trend compared to previous years.
– Given the context of historically low levels, these slight bounces should be viewed with cautious optimism, indicative of a more stable housing market as discussed on a recent HousingWire Daily podcast.
– Weekly pending sales figures for last week compared to previous years:
– 2024: 304,034
– 2023: 275,022
– 2022: 277,102
Purchase application data:
– A minor dip of 4% in weekly purchase applications may seem unimpressive at first glance, but the unadjusted data tells a different story, showing a significant 30% increase. Year-over-year, there is a modest 4% uptick, suggesting a positive growth trajectory in the pipeline.
– Unlike the starkly low comparisons from the previous months, the current data portrays a more genuine growth trend, defying expectations and positioning purchase applications favorably for future sales data.
– Recent weekly data reveals:
– 5 positive prints
– 4 negative prints
Embracing the yuletide spirit, the current housing market seems to be entering the traditional seasonal push earlier than expected, setting the stage for a riveting finish to the year.
In the realm of mortgage rates, the recent surge in the 10-year yield, buoyed by promising economic growth forecasts, offers a nuanced narrative of anticipation and resilience. Despite the uptick in rates, mortgage spreads have cushioned the impact, making this year’s market dynamics more favorable compared to its preceding counterparts.
The labyrinth of jobless claims data intertwined with the ephemeral nature of housing inventory points towards a market on the cusp of transformation, delicately balancing seasonal fluctuations with long-term stability. As the jingle bells of the housing market echo through the corridors of economic growth, the week ahead promises an enthralling narrative of Fed decisions and economic indicators, mirroring the anticipation of a prosperous 2024.
