Shocking Prediction: Unending Recession Since 2022 Could Spell Trouble for 2025!

In the realm of economic musings, lies a tale of conflicting beliefs and elusive truths. Remember the uproar when GDP took a dive under President Biden and Democrats hurried to assert it wasn’t a recession? Fast forward to today, and the tables seem to have turned with President Trump at the helm. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP nowcast for Q1 has recently nosedived from a projected 2.3% to a worrying -1.5%. The harsh reality dawns on us as we come to terms with the realization that our economic growth may have been nothing more than a facade, propped up by government spending and mounting debt.

Here are some key takeaways and insights to consider in this economic quandary:

It’s essential to note that mainstream economists didn’t rush to declare a recession under Biden’s tenure. Why? Well, because identifying a recession isn’t merely about two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. The assessment involves a comprehensive analysis of personal income, employment trends, and various other economic indicators.
The sudden plunge in the GDP nowcast can be attributed to anomalous factors like gold imports, which were perhaps overlooked by certain commentators. Understanding the nuances and intricacies of economic data is crucial in painting an accurate picture of the economy’s health.
In a paper authored by Peter St. Onge and myself, we argued that the US economy had been in recession since 2022. The signals of a downturn were already apparent, as depicted in the graph presented above. Dr. Antoni’s silence on this matter is quite telling, given the newfound indications of a recession in 2025Q1.

In the midst of this economic discourse, it’s imperative to seek clarity and engage in constructive dialogue. Dr. Antoni’s alleged ignorance or silence on key economic metrics raises pertinent questions. As we navigate through these uncertain times, let us not overlook the importance of transparency and robust economic analysis. Only through a deep understanding of the underlying factors driving our economy can we hope to steer it towards stability and growth.