The Editor’s Digest is now at your fingertips, offering a curated selection of top stories handpicked by Roula Khalaf, the FT’s Editor-in-Chief. Dive into the latest data that projects the UK’s population to soar to 72.5 million by 2032, boosted largely by increased international migration. Here’s a breakdown of the key points and implications from this forecast:
- Population Growth: The Office for National Statistics predicts a 7.3% increase over the decade to 2032, with the population set to rise by 4.9 million to reach 72.5 million. This growth is entirely attributed to net migration, while natural change (births minus deaths) remains stagnant.
- Labor Force Expansion: The working-age demographic is anticipated to swell by 9.4%, adding 4.1 million individuals to reach 47.3 million. This surge in the labor force is primed to fuel economic growth, enhancing tax revenues and potentially delivering a fiscal boost of £5 billion annually by the decade’s end.
- Ageing Population: A notable trend in these projections is the impending ageing of the UK populace. The number of individuals aged over 85 is projected to nearly double by 2047, climbing to 3.3 million. Factors contributing to this shift include the ageing baby boomer cohort and rising life expectancies.
- Migration Dynamics: The ONS assumptions hinge on a long-term net international migration rate of 340,000 individuals per year from mid-2028 onwards. However, some experts argue that these projections may be overstated, failing to consider the recent decline in net migration rates.
- Fertility Trends: While fertility rates are expected to stabilize, recent data shows a contrary trend, with the fertility rate in England and Wales hitting a record low. This downward trajectory may impact future population projections.
- Global Context: The UK’s projected population growth stands in contrast to countries grappling with shrinking populations like Italy, Japan, and China. Even Germany is poised to witness a population decline in the near future, according to UN forecasts.
In conclusion, the UK’s demographic landscape is on the brink of substantial transformation, influenced by migration patterns, fertility shifts, and an ageing population. As policy-makers navigate these projections, it becomes imperative to adapt strategies to address the evolving demands of a changing populace. Stay informed and engaged with the latest developments shaping the UK’s future.
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