Are you keeping up with the latest inflation trends? Let’s dive into the data from Michigan, NY Fed, and Atlanta Fed to get a comprehensive view of the current economic landscape.
- Year-on-Year CPI Inflation: The data paints a vivid picture of the inflation rates, with the bold black line representing the Year-on-Year CPI inflation. The Cleveland nowcast as of 2/11 shows a positive trend, indicated by the black cross. Keep an eye on the red line, depicting the Michigan Survey of Consumers, and the blue line representing the NY Fed. The Survey of Firms Inflation Expectations adds another layer of insight with its sky blue line. It’s crucial to analyze all these elements to understand the inflation scenario fully.
- Analysis of Surveys: The NY Fed survey reveals remarkable consistency in its findings. On the other hand, the Michigan survey has witnessed a noticeable uptick in the last couple of months, though the latest data point is preliminary. The range of inflation expectations varies from 3% (NY Fed) to 3.3% (Michigan preliminary). The Cleveland Fed’s inflation expectations for January, derived from a blend of survey and market data, stand at 2.6% as of mid-January.
- Interpretation and Prediction: Here’s a projection – the CPI equivalent to 2% PCE inflation could land around 2.45%. In this context, it’s apparent that inflation expectations still hover about 0.5 to 0.8% above the target range.
In conclusion, keeping track of inflation indicators is imperative for understanding the economic landscape. Stay informed and analyze the data to make informed decisions in this ever-evolving financial environment.
