As the looming threat of tariffs tightens its grip on Wisconsin, the future looks uncertain for the state. Unlike the situation during the previous trade war, where an $18 billion bailout for soybean farmers cushioned the blow, this time around, the prospects seem grim.
- Impact of Tariffs:
- Estimates indicate that the current tariffs could lead to industry-specific employment increases. However, the inevitable rise in input costs is likely to result in a decrease in manufacturing-wide employment. In fact, it is estimated that the tariffs imposed in 2018 caused a net loss of 175,000 manufacturing jobs.
- Last time tariffs were raised by Trump, retaliatory actions from China and other countries ensued. China retaliated by imposing tariffs on soybeans and a wide range of other goods, leading to a decline in real exports from Wisconsin, encompassing both manufactured and commodity goods.
- Figures and Data:
- According to Figure 1, Wisconsin’s exports of goods showed a decline in real terms as retaliation measures took effect. The impact of Section 232 and 301 actions can be seen highlighted in the data.
- A notable shift in the export of soybeans is evident, with Brazil emerging as a significant player in the market.
- Expert Insights:
- Agricultural economists express concerns that the current policies under Trump’s administration may pose more significant threats to the agricultural sector compared to alternative policies. Interestingly, a significant portion of agricultural economists believe that the agricultural economy is currently in a state of recession.
In conclusion, the repercussions of escalating tariffs are far-reaching and could have severe implications for Wisconsin’s economy. It is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders to closely monitor the situation and consider alternative strategies to safeguard the state’s economic interests. As uncertainties loom, proactive measures and strategic initiatives are imperative to navigate through these challenging times.
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