China’s Changing Demographics: A Look at the Numbers
In a surprising turn of events, China recorded its third consecutive year of population decline in 2024, despite a slight rise in births. As families across the nation celebrated the auspicious year of the dragon, birth rates saw a modest increase, with 9.54 million births compared to 10.93 million deaths. This marked the first rise in births since 2016 and left China with a total population of 1.408 billion, trailing behind India as the most populous country in the world.
The decline in population can be traced back to the aftermath of a 1980s policy that restricted most couples to having only one child, which was only abolished in 2016. This policy, coupled with economic pressures and slowing growth, has led to a decrease in birth rates and a shrinking working-age population, impacting overall productivity levels. The latest data reinforces the notion that this demographic shift is here to stay, describing it as the “new normal.”
Policymakers are strategizing ways to tackle this issue by exploring alternatives such as automation and robotics to maintain productivity levels. Moreover, incentives like subsidies, tax breaks, and persuasion tactics are being employed to encourage more couples to have children. With over a fifth of the population aged 60 or older, China has seen the emergence of a “silver economy” catering to the needs of the elderly population, with a focus on food and healthcare services.
In light of these demographic changes, Beijing has introduced plans for a “birth-friendly society” as part of broader efforts to stimulate the economy. However, experts such as Steve Tsang believe that high costs associated with raising children may hinder the effectiveness of these policies, leading to a continued decline in population for years to come. The challenge lies in adapting to this new demographic paradigm and finding sustainable solutions to address the shifting landscape of China’s population.
As China grapples with this demographic transformation, it is evident that proactive measures are needed to mitigate the impact on the economy and society at large. It is crucial for policymakers to prioritize the issue and implement effective strategies to address the challenges posed by a declining population. Only through proactive measures can China navigate this new demographic reality and ensure a sustainable future for generations to come.
