Are you prepared for what tomorrow will reveal about January egg prices at the consumer level? The fluctuations in futures prices suggest that retail egg prices might have increased. Could this trend continue, with futures prices already at $7.65 in February?
- The USDA’s Economic Research Service forecast for January 2025 predicts a $5/dozen price by the end of that year, based on a time series model.
- On the other hand, TradingEconomics forecasts a futures price of $9.67/dozen, utilizing their macroeconomic model and analysts’ input, which considers factors like egg-laying hen stocks and bird flu prevalence.
-
While the ERS forecast allows for the possibility of lower prices by end-2025, factors like bird flu outbreaks or a severe recession could contribute to such a scenario. However, as eggs are a staple rather than a luxury item, a significant price drop may not be entirely implausible.
What could all this mean for grocery prices as a whole? Eggs typically represent about 2.2% of the food-at-home component in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A 13% increase in egg prices from December to December could result in a 0.3 percentage point uptick in the food-at-home CPI component.
In a surprising development, betting on February egg prices shows an upward trend compared to January, suggesting that the market remains unpredictable and dynamic. Stay tuned for further updates on this fascinating market.
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeggs/egg-prices accessed 12:30 CT
