As a Chinese spy balloon popped off the South Carolina coast, it burst investors’ trust in Chinese stocks. When reflecting back to February 2023, Chinese equities had already been on a downward spiral for two years before the Pentagon’s interception of the wayward balloon further strained US-China relations. UBS observed that the market dynamics had shifted, causing a disconnect between stock performance and fundamentals such as return on equity. While correlation does not equal causation, the charts painted a compelling picture.
- Market Realities
- The market no longer responded to traditional valuation metrics.
- The rupture of long-standing correlations undermined investors’ confidence in Chinese stocks.
UBS’s strategy team, headed by Sunil Tirumalai, took a bold stance in April by upgrading China to "overweight." They believed that Chinese equities still had room to grow despite their recent resurgence. UBS pointed out that the market had heavily undervalued Chinese stocks relative to their return on equity. This discrepancy presented an opportunity for significant upside potential, even if Chinese equities closed only a portion of the valuation gap.
- Strategy Shifts
- UBS moved from Taiwan and Korea to a "neutral" stance.
- The primary driver of China’s underperformance was a collapse in valuations, not poor earnings.
JPMorgan, while more cautious, shifted Chinese stocks to "neutral" from "overweight" in early September. They highlighted the strong performance of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index following China’s Covid reopening in 2022. While they acknowledged the tactical potential for a 20% rally, JPMorgan refrained from adopting a long-term bullish view on China.
Contrastingly, hedge fund manager David Tepper expressed optimism towards Chinese equities given positive growth fundamentals and attractive valuations. The recent surge in Chinese stocks seems to have come from a mix of short-covering and hedge fund buying, rather than foreign investor interest. Analysts are skeptical about the sustainability of the rally, emphasizing the need for strong domestic investor participation going forward.
- Domestic Dynamics
- Market rally heavily reliant on local investor appetite.
- Recent policy measures aimed at boosting domestic market participation.
UBS believes that China’s equities’ primary challenge lies in a lack of domestic investment, rather than external factors like foreign selling or weak fundamentals. The post-Covid economic environment in China favored saving over consumption, hindering stock market growth. However, recent policy interventions aim to address this issue directly by encouraging market liquidity and domestic investment.
In conclusion, while the current market sentiment towards Chinese equities is positive, the sustainability of the rally remains uncertain. Investors should remain cautious and monitor both external and internal market dynamics closely. However, one thing remains clear: if another balloon appears on the horizon, it might be time to reassess your investment strategy.
