The Jamaican economic landscape is currently grappling with a series of formidable challenges as it heads into the first quarter of 2025. Renowned researcher Don Anderson emphasized the pivotal role that upcoming political decisions are poised to play in the coming months.
As economic indicators continue to trend downwards and with the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) leading in the polls, Prime Minister Andrew Holness is confronted with a difficult decision regarding the timing of the general elections, as observed by Anderson. Against this backdrop, Anderson posed a thought-provoking question: “Were you the prime minister, when would you call it?” The prevailing economic climate suggests that the economy is encountering significant obstacles as it progresses into 2025.
Speaking at the Rotary Club of North St Andrew in Kingston in mid-December, Anderson shed light on some key insights:
- The Opposition PNP currently holds a 9.0 percentage point lead over the Jamaica Labour Party in Anderson’s polls, with a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points.
- Political campaigning is projected to kick off in early 2025, preceding the constitutionally scheduled general elections in September.
Diving deeper into the economic landscape, Anderson unveiled a concerning picture:
- In the September 2024 quarter, the economy witnessed a 2.8 per cent decline compared to the previous year, influenced by the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl and global inflation.
- Both consumers and businesses have expressed pessimism, with 95 per cent of consumers feeling the pinch of rising prices, and only a quarter of businesses foreseeing an improvement in the coming year.
- Crime and violence remain at the forefront of concerns, with 75 per cent of respondents anticipating a surge in crime in 2025, despite a 12 per cent decline in major crimes in 2024.
On a more optimistic note:
- A third of businesses remain hopeful for better conditions in the future, though without specific reasons provided.
- Remittances, crucial for many households, have seen a decline since the onset of the pandemic, affecting nearly 27 per cent of households. This reduction in remittance inflows poses challenges for individuals meeting their daily expenses.
In summary, consumers are grappling with a significant challenge as they navigate the economic landscape. Anderson’s insights shed light on the complexities and uncertainties facing Jamaica in the upcoming months. It is imperative for stakeholders and policymakers to proactively address these issues to steer the economy towards stability and growth for the benefit of all Jamaicans.
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