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Canada’s Economic Growth: A Closer Look

As the latest Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data reveals, Canada’s economy has surpassed expectations with a faster-than-anticipated growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) in May. However, before breaking out the champagne, it’s essential to delve into the finer details of this economic performance.

Real GDP Growth Exceeds Forecasts
- Canada’s real GDP saw a notable 0.16% growth in May, outpacing analysts’ predictions.
- This growth rate, though slower compared to April, still surpassed the initial estimate of 0.1% by Stat Can.
- If predictions hold true, the country’s output is set to exceed the Bank of Canada’s expectations for overall growth.
Sectoral Analysis
- Of the 20 major sectors, 15 recorded expansions in May.
- Notably, the Goods sector saw a more significant growth rate of 0.4% compared to Services at 0.1%, which is concerning as Services have been driving substantial wage growth.
Public Sector’s Role in Growth
- The growth spurt was primarily fueled by a rapid expansion in the public sector, with real GDP increasing by 0.4% in May.
- This marks the fifth consecutive month of growth in the public sector, attributed to local and regional administrations.
- Surprisingly, the public sector accounted for nearly half (49%) of the total GDP growth in May, a trend often observed in recessions.
Struggles with GDP Per Capita
- Despite the overall GDP growth, Canada’s economy is failing to keep pace with population expansion.
- On a per capita basis, the GDP declined by 1.0% in the second quarter, signaling a troubling trend.
- Economists warn that if the current trajectory continues, it would mark the 8th consecutive quarter of per capita GDP decline, indicating potential weaknesses in the labor market.

In conclusion, while Canada’s economic growth has shown positive signs, the underlying challenges, especially concerning per capita GDP, cannot be overlooked. It is imperative for policymakers and stakeholders to address these issues to ensure sustained and inclusive economic prosperity for all Canadians.