As the third quarter progresses, the latest GDPNow nowcast has been adjusted upwards to 2.5% from the previous 2.1%, indicating a positive outlook for the economy. This increase comes following recent reports on employment and wholesale trade, which have contributed to the upward revision in growth projections.
- Key Points:
- The current nowcast for consumption growth stands at 3.5%, slightly lower than the earlier forecast of 3.8% on August 30th.
- The relative accuracy of GDPNow compared to other forecasting models is highlighted in a comparative analysis by Deutsche Bank in 2019.
- Comparative Analysis:
In a study by Luzzetti et al. titled “Tracking the GDP trackers,” Deutsche Bank evaluates the accuracy of various GDP tracking models, shedding light on the forecasting capabilities of GDPNow.3.1. Accuracy Assessment:
The analysis indicates that with approximately 50 days remaining until the advance release for Q3 GDP on October 30th, GDPNow performs on par with the Bloomberg consensus in terms of accuracy. While the specific details of recent assessments are not readily available, the overall trend suggests that GDPNow remains a reliable forecasting tool for economic projections.
In conclusion, the latest adjustment in GDPNow nowcast reflects a positive trajectory for economic growth in the third quarter. With consumption growth holding strong and recent reports fueling optimism, the outlook for the economy appears promising. Stay tuned for further updates as we approach the release of Q3 GDP data.
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