Iran’s political landscape has always been tumultuous, with past presidents facing marginalization or violent ends. However, Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s former president, is now poised to break this cycle and make a political comeback that seemed unlikely until recently. Following his term in office marked by challenges and setbacks, the tides have turned in his favor, offering a glimmer of hope for a resurgence.
The events of 2024 redefined power dynamics both within Iran and across the Middle East. With Israel’s actions weakening Iran’s Axis of Resistance and the fall of the Assad regime, the political landscape has shifted. The reigning hard-liners are now facing scrutiny for their role in bringing isolation, repression, and economic ruin to Iran. Amid this turmoil, reformists are making a comeback, led by the unexpected victory of Masoud Pezeshkian in the presidential election.
Rouhani stands prominently in this new political landscape, along with his ally Javad Zarif. The two are advocating for engagement with the world and a push towards sanctions relief to address Iran’s deep-rooted issues. Their vision of constructive interaction and freer elections is being met with resistance from hard-liners who fear losing influence in the changing political climate.
The current weakness and desperation of Iran provide an opportunity for Rouhani and his allies to reclaim power and position themselves favorably for the succession following Khamenei’s rule. Rouhani’s past experiences navigating complex diplomatic situations and confronting rival power centers make him a formidable player in the internal power struggles within Iran. His pragmatic developmentalism aligns with the interests of many influential figures, cutting across traditional party lines and offering a pathway to political resurgence.
While Rouhani’s chances at a political resurgence are the subject of speculation, the shifting dynamics within Iran are undeniable. The country’s bleak situation may force even the staunchest hard-liners to consider a new approach focused on development rather than ideological confrontation. As the winds of change sweep through Iran, Rouhani and his allies stand poised to make a meaningful comeback and reshape the country’s political landscape.
