Find out if Russia will strike back – what are the consequences?

As tensions escalate between Ukraine and Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to unveil his "victory plan" during a visit to the US, aiming to end the war against his country. At the core of this plan is the demand to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike deep into Russian territory. This strategic move is intended to target Russia’s logistics infrastructure, airfields, and artillery positions.

Here are key points to consider in this unfolding situation:

• Russian Retaliation Concerns: The debate surrounding Ukraine’s use of long-range strikes is not only about military effectiveness but also about the risk of Russian retaliation. While some argue that Ukraine’s recent offensive and drone strikes prove that Russia’s threats are empty, others are wary of a potential escalation if ATACMS or British Storm Shadow missiles hit Russian soil.
• Russian Dilemmas: Russia also faces challenges in how to respond. Aiding the Houthis could strain relations with key partners like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, jeopardizing its economic survival. Additionally, escalating with Ukraine’s backers could lead to increased sabotage and disinformation operations in Europe.
• Nuclear Threats: Moscow’s threats of nuclear war and potential updates to its nuclear doctrine raise concerns about the risk of escalation. However, these moves may not achieve Russia’s goals and could unsettle global partners like China and nuclear "have-nots."

As the situation unfolds, both Western states and Russia are grappling with decisions that could have far-reaching consequences. While the possibility of horizontal or vertical escalation exists, factors such as ancillary costs and constraints may influence the direction of the conflict. Recognizing the complexities at play is crucial in navigating the path forward and avoiding a more dangerous global environment.

In the midst of these uncertainties, a commitment to restraint and a focus on diplomatic solutions remains essential to prevent further escalation and foster peace in the region. Stay informed and engaged with the evolving developments to support efforts towards a resolution to the conflict.