Airbus: A Flying Investment Opportunity for 2025
Amid the dynamic landscape of the aerospace industry, Airbus emerges as a beacon of stability and growth, capturing the attention of investors for the upcoming year. According to analysts at BofA Securities, Airbus showcases remarkable resilience and potential, making it a standout candidate for inclusion in equity portfolios in 2025.
Key Points to Consider:
- Solid Delivery Performance: Airbus closed the curtains on 2024 with an impressive delivery performance, hitting the mark with an estimated 750-760 aircraft deliveries. This success was primarily attributed to an upsurge in A320 deliveries during the fourth quarter, surpassing expectations despite supply chain hurdles, particularly regarding LEAP engine issues. Notably, Q4 of 2024 witnessed a surge of 13 aircraft deliveries compared to the same period in 2023.
- Challenges in the A350 Segment: Despite its overall success, the A350 segment fell slightly short, with only 55 deliveries, missing BofA’s projection of over 60. However, the focus for 2025 will be on streamlining production by integrating Spirit, a move aimed at smoothing out bottlenecks in fuselage production.
-
Upcoming Prospects: The impending fourth-quarter 2024 results, expected in February, will shed light on Airbus’s projections for 2025, potentially aiming for 800-810 deliveries. Analysts anticipate that enhancements in supply chain efficiency, particularly concerning LEAP engine production, will drive production growth, fueled in part by the certification of high-pressure turbine components.
-
Financial Strength and Returns: Airbus is poised for a period of strong financial performance, with a projected cash conversion rate of 90% from 2025 to 2029. This solid cash flow generation provides room for shareholder returns, with BofA forecasting a €1 billion share buyback program in 2025, possibly expanding in the mid-term. Companies with robust capital return policies historically command higher valuations, positioning Airbus advantageously in this regard.
-
Currency Advantage: The current weakness of the Euro against the US Dollar presents a favorable situation for Airbus, as $22 billion of hedged contracts for 2025 at 1.20 exchange rate provides a significant boost. Currency trends are anticipated to play a vital role, with potential EBIT enhancements linked to exchange rate variations.
Conclusion:
Airbus’s positive outlook for 2025, driven by robust delivery performance, financial health, and strategic initiatives, presents a compelling investment opportunity. While some risks exist, improved supply chain dynamics and recovering aerospace demand mitigate these concerns to a certain extent. With an estimated upside, supported by projected earnings growth and dividend yield improvement, Airbus is a potential gem in the investment realm for 2025.
Leave feedback about this