With U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Kyiv and President Donald Trump shocking Europe by revealing initial talks with Vladimir Putin, a potential peace plan for the war in Ukraine has taken an interesting turn. The proposal involves U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earths and other critical minerals in exchange for a “security shield.” While this innovation could be a significant boon for Ukraine’s economy and security, the country requires a comprehensive economic strategy to deter future Russian aggression, beyond just this potential deal.
Formerly serving as Minister of Infrastructure and Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration, I’ve realized that Ukraine’s recovery hinges on enhancing its economy independently of external negotiations or political changes. This responsibility falls on our shoulders, and it is vital for our survival. Strengthening the economy would not only support our military capabilities with advanced technology but also pave the way for refugee returns and a stable future for our citizens, leading towards closer integration with the E.U.
Numerous economic development strategies have been suggested in the past, but implementation has always fallen short in Ukraine. The lack of a coherent long-term economic vision has left investors uncertain, restricted credit from global funds, and led to a government functioning amid perpetual chaos. The economic turmoil we face today is not solely due to the war but is a result of years of shifting political landscapes and a dearth of a unified economic strategy that transcends different administrations’ agendas.
The full-fledged invasion by Russia has inflicted severe damage on Ukraine’s economy. While the country has not been wiped off the map as some anticipated, GDP has plummeted, leading to the loss of key industrial assets and vast tracts of agricultural land. Despite these challenges, opportunities have emerged, with Ukraine securing access to E.U. markets and filling the void left by Russian companies on the international stage.
Although the war has taken a toll, the private sector in Ukraine has displayed remarkable resilience. Local businesses have played a pivotal role in the defense efforts, supporting logistics, rehabilitating veterans, and initiating volunteer programs. Foreign businesses have also shown resilience amidst the conflict, reporting substantial profits despite the ongoing war. However, what is urgently needed is a cohesive, data-driven strategy for the long-term economic recovery of the nation.
In collaboration with the business community, my team embarked on developing a 15-year economic roadmap, identifying key sectors for reform and investment to stimulate growth. Through detailed planning and strategic partnerships, we aim to revitalize critical sectors like agriculture, defense, and rare earth metals, propelling Ukraine towards economic growth by 2.7-fold by 2040.
Establishing a think tank, We Build Ukraine, enabled us to engage with stakeholders, including businesses, financial institutions, government officials, and foreign leaders, to address sector-specific challenges and outline regulatory reforms and incentives. By enhancing investor confidence and combatting corruption, we aim to transform Ukraine’s reputation as an unpredictable and corrupt business environment.
My experience leading state-owned enterprises demonstrated that targeted reforms can lead to transformative results. Simple actions such as eliminating intermediaries in procurement saved millions of dollars, highlighting the potential for growth with the right approach. By instilling discipline and determination, we can turn loss-making enterprises into profitable ventures, underpinning a broader economic transformation for Ukraine.
Despite enduring significant strife, Ukraine has weathered one of Europe’s most substantial attacks, underscoring the importance of adopting a clear, long-term economic vision amid peace talks. This strategy, unswayed by changing leadership in Kyiv or abroad, is crucial for attracting foreign investments, unlocking Ukraine’s economic potential, and cementing its status as a respected and sovereign nation for years to come.
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