Discover the Surprising Prediction for Global Trade Recovery by ECLAC!

The Forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean’s Foreign Trade

The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) recently unveiled its annual Latin America and the Caribbean International Trade Outlook, predicting a slight rebound in regional exports of goods in 2024 following a 1% contraction in the previous year. Additionally, service exports are expected to experience their fourth consecutive year of double-digit growth.

Key Points from the ECLAC Report:

1. Goods Export Projections:
   • Projected 4% growth in the region’s goods exports.
   • Factors contributing to this growth: 5% expansion in volume and 1% drop in prices.
   • Foreseen increases in agricultural exports (11%), mining and petroleum (5%), and manufacturing (3%).
   • Caribbean (23%) and South America (5%) expected to see the largest export increases.
2. Destination Analysis:
   • Projected growth in exports to China (6%), the United States (4%), and the European Union (3%).
   • Intra-regional exports anticipated to decrease from 14% in 2023 to 13% in 2024.
3. Services Export Projections:
   • Forecasted 12% increase in the value of regional services exports.
   • Main drivers of growth: tourism and digitally delivered services.
   • Services imports expected to grow by only 1% in 2024.

The ECLAC report also highlighted challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and protectionism. To address these challenges and enhance competitiveness, the report stressed the importance of implementing productive development policies, emphasizing a cluster approach and fostering public-private cooperation.

Role of Trade in Food Security:

The ECLAC report delved into the crucial role of trade in ensuring food security in Latin America and the Caribbean. It pointed out that despite being the world’s leading net food exporting region, the prevalence of hunger still persists in certain areas. The report emphasized the need for regional integration to create more stable and lower-cost food supplies.

Recommendations to Strengthen Trade’s Contribution to Food Security:
1) Facilitation of food trade processes.
2) Harmonization of regulations.
3) Improvement of logistics.
4) Strengthening trade agreements.
5) Coordination in multilateral forums.

Unlocking the Potential of Services for Regional Exports:

In a region where per capita income stagnation and low growth in goods exports prevail, services exports are identified as a potential growth engine for the external sector. The report highlighted the importance of strengthening joint productive policies with private entrepreneurs and investing in digital skills and infrastructure to capitalize on services exports.

In conclusion, the ECLAC report underscores the importance of leveraging the region’s strengths in goods and services exports to drive economic growth and enhance competitiveness. By addressing challenges, embracing regional integration, and maximizing the potential of services exports, Latin American and Caribbean countries can navigate the evolving global trade landscape successfully.