As we delve into the latest economic indicators, the employment data for October and monthly GDP for September are in the spotlight for analysis by the NBER’s BCDC. Let’s take a closer look at the trends shaping the economic landscape:
- Figure 1: Various economic variables painted on the canvas of the current state of affairs. Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES stands out in blue, with implied NFP from preliminary benchmarks in bold blue. Other key factors include civilian employment in orange, industrial production in red, and personal income excluding current transfers in bold light green. Not to be overshadowed are manufacturing and trade sales, consumption, and monthly GDP, all essential components in understanding the economic framework. These figures, log-normalized to 2021M11, provide valuable insights into the economic trajectory with data sources from BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 1st release, and S&P Global Market Insights.
- Available alternative indicators: The landscape of alternate indicators is showing positive trends, with the coincident index for September on an upward trajectory alongside vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for August.
- Figure 2: Delve deeper into the economic landscape with a focus on Nonfarm Payroll early benchmarks in bold blue, and civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates in orange. Keep an eye on manufacturing production in red, personal income trends, retail sales, VMT, and the coincident index to get a comprehensive understanding of economic performance. These figures, normalized to 2021M11, offer critical insights sourced from the Philadelphia Fed Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 third release/annual update, and independent calculations.
- High frequency indicators: The pulse of the economy can be felt through high-frequency indicators, with the Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI at 2.1% and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims WECI at 1.5% (assuming a trend of 2%).
- Figure 3: Dive into the nuances of economic health with insights from the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index in blue and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index in tan, both showcasing year-on-year growth rates. Data sources from NY Fed via FRED offer valuable insights into the weekly economic landscape.
As we navigate through the currents of economic data, it is crucial to stay informed and vigilant about the shifting trends and indicators that shape our financial ecosystem. Stay tuned for updates on GDPNow for Q4 at 2.3% and the NY Fed nowcast at 2.01% to stay ahead of the curve in understanding the economic landscape. Together, let’s navigate through these economic waters with wisdom and foresight.
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