The recent spike in rates following Wednesday’s Fed announcement dominated headlines this week. Despite the increase, rates are poised to close the week at slightly lower levels, thanks to this morning’s inflation data playing a crucial role in the market’s movements.
Here’s how the inflation reports affected interest rates this week:
- The focus on inflation reports during Wednesday’s Fed Day caused some anxiety, especially with Friday’s release of the PCE inflation index.
- The bond market closely monitors “core” inflation, excluding the volatile food and energy components. If core inflation maintains a steady pace around 0.2% month over month, annual inflation could reach the 2.0% target.
- Today’s monthly core PCE stood at 0.1%, below market expectations. However, the year-over-year PCE figure remained at 2.8%, deviating from the expected 0.1% increase.
When reports like PCE and CPI come in lower than anticipated, rates typically experience downward pressure. This was evident today as lenders recouped nearly half of the losses from Wednesday’s jump. While top-tier 30-year fixed rates are still above 7%, they have slightly moderated.
In summary, the market reacted to inflation data, influencing interest rates throughout the week. With rates hovering at slightly lower levels by the week’s end, investors and borrowers are closely monitoring future reports to gauge market movements.
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