In the realm of geopolitical gambles, few are as consequential and intriguing as the bet made four decades ago by the presidents of the US and Canada – George HW Bush and Brian Mulroney. Their risky wager on free trade and closer integration aimed to transform Mexico from a corrupt, one-party state into a vibrant democracy with a robust economy similar to theirs. The birth of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) marked the start of a transformative journey for Mexico.
Here’s a glimpse into the journey that Mexico has navigated, from a fledgling democracy to its current trajectory under the leadership of President AndrΓ©s Manuel LΓ³pez Obrador and his imminent successor, Claudia Sheinbaum:
- Historical Reforms and Progress: Under the leadership of Ernesto Zedillo, Mexico embarked on a path to democracy, implementing significant reforms that guaranteed clean elections, fortified the judiciary, and established independent regulators. The once "longed-for arrival of a truly democratic presidency" now faces a divergent course envisioned by the current administration.
- Shifting Ideologies: While NAFTA and its successor, the USMCA, brought economic growth and investment to Mexico, President LΓ³pez Obrador and his successor have diverging views on democracy and the economy. The aspiration for Mexico to evolve into a modern, open society is veering in a new direction.
- Political Shifts and Consequences: President-elect Sheinbaum is poised to usher in a transformational era, embracing direct democracy, heavy welfare spending, and a state-driven economy. Her philosophy resonates with LΓ³pez Obrador’s vision of a "Fourth Transformation" in Mexico, causing ripples among Mexico’s foreign allies and partners.
Recent actions by Mexico’s leadership underscore a departure from democratic norms and institutional checks and balances, causing concern among US businesses, investors, and policymakers. The dismantling of the judiciary and erosion of democratic principles raise questions about Mexico’s future trajectory.
In the face of these challenges, the role of the US and its allies becomes pivotal. While Washington has been relatively silent on Mexico’s evolving political landscape, the urgency to protect Mexico’s fledgling democracy looms large. As Mexico embarks on its next chapter, the actions of foreign powers will undoubtedly shape its destiny.
The time for action is now. As Mexico stands on the precipice of change, the international community, led by the US, must rally to safeguard the fragile threads of democracy and uphold democratic values. The choices made today will reverberate for generations to come.
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