Surprising Slowdown: Agent Movement in January Falls Short of Projections

Navigating the Real Estate Landscape: Insights from January

As we delve into the metrics and trends of January, it’s apparent that the real estate industry is experiencing some interesting shifts. Let’s break down the key observations from the data and explore what they mean for brokers and recruiters moving forward.

1. Modest Increase, Yet Below Expectations:

• The unadjusted monthly AMI score saw a slight uptick to 90.3, which is common post-holiday.
• However, this increase falls short of historical benchmarks, indicating a slower movement among agents compared to previous years.

1. Decline in Seasonally Adjusted Metrics:

• The seasonally adjusted figure dropped to 89.2, highlighting a continued soft trend from December.
• This suggests that despite surface movements, the actual underlying shifts in the market are slower than usual for this time of year.

1. Further Ease in 12-Month Moving Average:

• The trailing 12-month measure decreased to 98.6, continuing the downward trend observed in the previous month’s analysis.

1. Decrease in Active Agent Count:

• The number of agents with at least one transaction in the past year fell to 790,111, indicating a decline for yet another month, though still higher than the figures seen in 2018.

Relitix Founder, Rob Keefe, offered his insights on the current landscape: “January typically sees a spike in recruiting activity as agents reassess their broker relationships. However, this year’s increase seems muted. The diminishing seasonally adjusted readings imply that agents are staying put, and brokerages are exercising caution in their hiring practices. While the current environment is not as dire as 2018, recruiters and brokerage leaders need to fine-tune their retention strategies until a more substantial market shift occurs.”

Looking ahead, brokers and recruiters should consider the following implications:

• Anticipate a Slow First Quarter:
  Despite minor fluctuations, agent movements are still below par. Leaders should prepare for a sluggish start to the year in terms of recruitment.

• Revamp Recruitment Strategies:
  With fewer agents switching brokerages, enhancing value propositions, such as improved technology tools, marketing support, or robust agent development programs, could attract top talent.

• Keep tabs on Active Agent Levels:
  While active agent counts are declining, they have not yet returned to the lows of 2018. Monitoring whether the agent pool stabilizes or shrinks further is crucial for setting realistic recruiting goals.

In conclusion, the data from January reflects a cautious and measured approach within the real estate industry. By adapting recruitment strategies and closely monitoring market movements, brokers and recruiters can navigate the current landscape effectively.