As we navigate the intricate web of economic indicators, the S&P Global Market Intelligence provides us with a monthly snapshot of the GDP through December. This information, in conjunction with the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee indicators, gives us a comprehensive view of the current economic landscape.
- The data presented in Figure 1 paints a vivid picture of various key indicators:
- Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES
- Implied NFP from preliminary benchmark through December
- Civilian employment as reported
- Industrial production
- Personal income excluding current transfers
- Manufacturing and trade sales
- Consumption
- Monthly GDP
This mosaic of information, log normalized to 2021, offers a detailed look at the trends and fluctuations in the economy. Sources from BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA, S&P Global Market Insights, and author’s calculations all converge to provide a comprehensive analysis.
- The decrease in monthly GDP is primarily attributed to net exports and inventories, factors that S&P Global Market Intelligence deems as temporary aberrations. This insight sheds light on the transient nature of certain economic fluctuations.
- Pawel Skrzypczynski brings to attention a series of research publications by BLS that incorporate smoothed population controls. A comparison between the NFP pre-benchmark revision and December 2024 CPS employment series against the NFP post-benchmark revision reveals intriguing insights. Incorporating the reported January 2025 observation adds a layer of depth to the analysis.
In Figure 2, the comparison highlights a notable decrease in the December gap when considering the benchmarked NFP series and the smoothly integrated population series. This observation indicates a significant reduction in the disparity between CES and CPS measures of employment, a phenomenon that has been a focal point of discussion.
As we delve deeper into the intricate tapestry of economic indicators, the nuances and intricacies become apparent. The intricate dance between various indicators paints a dynamic picture of the economic landscape, offering insights and perspectives that are crucial in shaping our understanding. Let us continue to delve deeper, analyze further, and unravel the mysteries that lie within the realm of economic indicators.
