With the recent reports on industrial production showing a decrease of 0.9% compared to a consensus of +0.1% month-over-month, many are closely monitoring key indicators to gauge the state of the economy. Here are some crucial metrics tracked by the NBER’s BCDC, along with monthly GDP figures.
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Nonfarm Payroll Employment (NFP):
- The NFP employment from CES is depicted in blue, while implied NFP from the preliminary benchmark is highlighted in bold blue.
- Civilian employment is shown in orange, industrial production in red, personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ in bold light green, manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ in black, consumption in Ch.2017$ in light blue, and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ in pink.
- Despite manufacturing showing a slight recovery (+0.2% vs. +0.5% consensus month-over-month), it remains below expectations.
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Manufacturing Production:
- The manufacturing production chart illustrates that there has been a mild rebound, with manufacturing employment figures also provided for reference.
- Both manufacturing employment from BLS and ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab is shown, all seasonally adjusted.
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Core Retail Sales:
- Core retail sales fell short of expectations at +0.2% compared to a consensus of +0.4% month-over-month.
- Total retail sales, on the other hand, exceeded predictions at +0.7% versus +0.6% month-over-month.
- Economic Outlook:
- While there are signs of sluggish growth, it is premature to label it as a recession.
- The upticks in employment and personal income recorded in November point towards a more stable economic landscape.
To summarize, the recent data on industrial production and other key indicators paint a mixed picture of the economy. While there are concerns about slower growth, the overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic. It is essential to monitor these indicators closely in the coming months to assess the trajectory of the economy accurately.
