Shocking Drop in Housing Inventory During Election Week!

With the tightening of the housing inventory peaking and bottoming later than usual over the past years, recent trends have captured our attention. In a notable decline in both active inventory and new listings last week, the housing market’s response after an election is worth considering. Taking a closer look at the data provides intriguing insights into the current state of housing. Let’s explore the latest trends and how they might shape the future of the market.

Weekly housing inventory data

1. Embracing the prospect of healthy inventory growth in 2024, the recent data hints at a positive outcome if mortgage rates drop to 6% or below.
2. Weekly inventory changes have shown a consistent pattern, with moderate growth falling within the range of 11,000 to 17,000 per week, signaling stability in 2024.

New listings data

1. Despite falling slightly short of the target this year, the growth in new listings data is a notable highlight.
2. Contrary to predictions of an influx of new listings due to various factors, 2024 stands as one of the lowest years for new listings.
3. An overall decrease in new listings data, particularly in the past week, might be influenced by seasonal factors or external events.

Price-cut percentage

1. Typically, around one-third of homes experience price cuts, a common practice in the housing market.
2. Recent trends have shown a decline in the price-cut percentage, attributing the shift to lower mortgage rates and increased demand.

Purchase application data

1. The impact of higher mortgage rates on purchase application data has been evident in recent trends.
2. A notable downtrend in purchase applications has surfaced, mirroring fluctuations in mortgage rates and demand shifts.

Weekly pending sales

1. Observing the real-time demand through weekly pending sales data, a discernible growth trend is apparent.
2. Comparing the growth to previous years, the context of the market’s history provides valuable insights into current sales patterns.

10-year yield and mortgage rates

1. Despite fluctuations, the stabilizing 4.40% level on the 10-year yield indicates a downward trend is still intact, with continued observations required.
2. Post-election scenarios and economic policies shape the discourse around mortgage rates, stimulating a realistic discussion on the potential future landscape.

Mortgage spreads

1. The positive trajectory of mortgage spreads in 2024 contrasts with the negative outlook in 2023, showcasing a significant improvement.
2. Despite recent worsened spreads due to rate spikes, a focus on normalization underscores potential rate reductions and market stability.

As we look ahead, the upcoming week presents pivotal economic events, shaping the roadmap for the housing market. From inflation week to retail sales data and Fed speeches, analysts will closely monitor market reactions and policymakers’ insights. Keeping a keen eye on labor trends and inflation dynamics sets the tone for future market movements.

In conclusion, the housing market’s resilience and adaptability to external factors highlight its dynamic nature. As we navigate through evolving trends and data, a nuanced understanding of market intricacies becomes imperative for informed decision-making. Stay tuned for more updates and insights on the evolving landscape of the housing market.