The latest economic indicators are in, and they paint an interesting picture of the current state of the economy. Let’s delve into the numbers and see what they reveal:
- GDP under Bloomberg consensus of 3.0% at 2.8% (GDPNow nails it).
- ADP private NFP change at 233K vs. Bloomberg consensus at 110K.
Looking at Figure 1, we can see a comprehensive view of various economic factors such as nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment, civilian employment, industrial production, personal income, manufacturing and trade sales, consumption, and monthly GDP. The data is log normalized to provide a clear comparison over time, with the latest figures from 2024Q3. Sources include BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, S&P Global Market Insights, and the author’s calculations.
Moving on to Figure 2, we observe private nonfarm payroll employment trends from BLS, implied preliminary benchmark revisions, and ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab data. It is important to note that ADP numbers are not survey-based, providing a different perspective on employment trends without the influence of models like the firm birth-death model.
In Figure 3, the month-on-month growth rates of private nonfarm payroll employment are compared among BLS, benchmark revisions, ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab, and Bloomberg consensus. Calculated using log differences, these figures offer insights into the changing dynamics of the job market.
In conclusion, despite some concerns raised by EJ Antony, Kevin Hassett, Larry Kudlow, Peter Thiel, and Wilbur Ross, the data does not indicate recessionary trends at this time. However, upcoming releases on personal income, consumption, and sales figures will provide further clarity on the economic outlook. Stay tuned for more updates on the evolving economic landscape.
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