Unveiled Yesterday:
In light of the S&P Global national forecast, the Department of Revenue (DoR) has put forth some critical conclusions regarding the economic outlook for Wisconsin:
- Wisconsin is projected to witness a 0.8% growth in employment by the year 2024.
- The state’s unemployment rate stood at 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024, significantly lower than the national rate of 4.0%. Forecasts suggest that Wisconsin’s unemployment rate may peak at 3.6% in 2027, in contrast to the nationwide projection of 4.6%.
- In 2023, Wisconsin saw a 4.4% increase in personal income, which equated to a mere 0.6% rise after adjusting for inflation. Nominal wages experienced a robust growth of 5.7%, compensating for a 2.4% decline in proprietors’ income. It is predicted that nominal personal income will expand by 4.3% in 2024, with real income expected to increase by 1.7% due to a slowdown in inflation.
Employment Outlook:
- The data reflected in Figure 1 depicts Wisconsin’s nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), forecast based on US nonfarm payroll (red), and the May 2024 forecast by the Department of Revenue (light tan lines). It is noteworthy that the July employment figures might undergo upward revisions due to the relationship between national and state employment.
GDP Insights:
- Figure 2 illustrates Wisconsin’s GDP (bold black) alongside the August 2024 forecast from the Department of Revenue (blue line). An intriguing observation is the apparent discrepancy between BEA’s estimates of Wisconsin’s GDP and income metrics. Potential factors contributing to this disparity could include the utilization of national-level industry-specific price deflators as opposed to state-level data. It is essential to acknowledge the unpredictable nature of forecasting, as indicated by an adjusted R-squared value of 0.70 between quarterly growth rates over a specific period.
Mid-August Perspective:
Eric Hovde’s perspective in mid-August hinted at a looming economic downturn, with speculations of a recession either underway or imminent. However, existing data does not align with the notion of a recession having commenced in the second quarter.
For further insights on Wisconsin’s economic landscape, Michael Collins from LaFollette and Associate Director Laura Dresser from Wisconsin PBS provide valuable commentary on Wisconsin Public Radio (WPR) and Wisconsin PBS respectively. Let’s stay informed and stay ahead.
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